Six nations offer Iran a package of proposals to resolve its nuclear issue. Will Iran accept it?
After months of disagreement and negotiations, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council--the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China--and Germany came up with a package of proposals in early June to induce Iran to give up its nuclear activities, a mark of progress on this difficult issue.
European Union (EU) foreign policy chief Javier Solana passed the proposals on to Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, on June 6. According to media reports, the proposal contains both rewards and punishments, or what can be described as a “carrot and stick” plan.
With the precondition that Iran halts all its efforts at uranium enrichment, the United States will join the EU negotiations with Iran. The Middle Eastern country may receive the following rewards:
--The six countries will acknowledge that Iran has the right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and agree to help Iran build a new light water reactor, and European and Russian companies will carry out the program;
--Iran can continue to carry out uranium transformation, a preparatory stage to uranium enrichment;
--Iran can have enriched uranium only if it adheres to the preconditions set by the UN Security Council;
--Iran can be guaranteed nuclear fuel under a legal framework, and set up equipment with a storage capacity that can be used for five years;
--The six countries will support Iran’s incorporation into the international economic framework, including the World Trade Organization (WTO), and create trade and investment opportunities for the country;
--Cooperation on civil aviation with Iran will be resumed, and restrictions on exporting civilian airplanes to Iran will be removed;
--Iran can be a long-term partner in strategic energy cooperation with the EU and other countries that are willing to participate;
--A regional cooperation forum is to be created as the platform for negotiations between Iran and the United States.
Punishments, as well as incentives
The package also contains punishments if Iran does not cooperate, including the following:
--The export of nuclear equipment or nuclear technology to Iran is forbidden;
--Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on nuclear technology will be terminated;
--Iranians will not be permitted to participate in courses of study abroad involving nuclear or ballistic missile technology;
--Bilateral political contacts with Iran will be frozen;
--Some Iranian government officials will not be granted visas to other countries;
--Iran will be under a weapons embargo;
--Foreign investment in Iran in certain fields will not be permitted;
--Iran will not receive support to join the WTO;
--There will be an embargo on exports of refined oil and natural gas products.
Observers believed that Iran would find the proposals attractive, primarily because of the rewards. Actually, this was considered an important precondition for reaching an agreement among the six nations, since Russia and China insist on resolving the problem through diplomatic means and oppose sanctions against Iran.
Although the proposals seemed to bring hope for a peaceful resolution of the issue, Iran’s attitude could change everything.
On June 9, U.S. President George W. Bush announced at a press conference at Camp David that Iran was being given only several weeks, rather than several months, to make its final decision. If Iran does not stop its uranium enrichment program, it must face the consequences and the UN Security Council will take action, Bush warned.
A report from Xinhua News Agency suggested that the foreign ministers reached an understanding--not included in the package--that Iran’s nuclear program would have to go before the Security Council for a vote before uranium enrichment could continue. That means the United States would have a veto.
In addition, the package calls for Iran to provide economic justification for its nuclear program, a complicated process that would probably take more than 10 years.
“It means they’re not getting there anytime soon,” said Robert J. Einhorn, a senior adviser to the U.S. Government on nonproliferation. Einhorn called the American decision a “wise move and a tactical shift” because it acknowledged Iran’s right to enrichment in the future, an important psychological and diplomatic concession.
U.S. response?
Meng Xiangqing, a researcher at China’s National Defense University, predicted that if Iran does not accept the proposals, the United States would be very likely to turn to economic sanctions and a possible military resolution, citing the following factors:
First of all, Iran has been a thorn in America’s side since the late 1970s, following its Islamic revolution, because of its opposition toward the United States on many issues. It was reported that the U.S. Government even designed a military plan in 2003, prior to the Iraq war.
Second, the United States has never moved back when it faces serious strategic problems. Nonproliferation is now on top of U.S. agenda. To the United States, Iran supports extremist organizations that are involved in terrorism. If Iran is armed with nuclear power, Washington will sense a threat. At that point, U.S. public might be very supportive of a military strike, if they feel the danger of a terrorist attack, even though they now oppose the Iraq war.
Third, Iran’s oil weapon will not be as powerful as expected. If Iran stops oil exports, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will find other ways to stabilize international oil prices, as OPEC member states have closer ties with big oil importers like the United States than with Iran, due to economic interests. Besides, U.S. strategic oil reserves can also help the country survive a cutoff of Iranian oil for some time.
Fourth, as strong as Tehran is in the Gulf region, it can never compare with Washington. The United States does have the ability to start another war.
Meng said the path that the United States follows depends on how much the problem affects U.S. interests and on the outcome of its diplomatic efforts.
The Iranians understand this, too. They are studying the proposals and balancing what they will get and what they will give up. Larijani said in Cairo on June 11 that Iran welcomed constructive talks with no preconditions over its nuclear issue.
He added that Iran favored talks to solve problems. “In our view, the proper way for Islamic countries to surmount problems and challenges is through harmony, consultation, dialogue and cooperation.”
Meanwhile, Larijani reiterated that the Iranian nuclear program was a completely peaceful one that posed no danger to either Islamic or non-Islamic nations.
It is reported that Iran might prepare a package in response to the incentives agreed upon by the six countries that are seeking to persuade Iran to suspend its nuclear enrichment program, as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on June 10 in Tehran. If the package is acceptable, the world might be able to breathe easier on this issue.