摘 要：為更加准确揭示足球技战术表现与比赛胜负的关系，以2014—2016赛季中国足球超级联赛结果（不包含平局）为样本（n=519场），采用二元Logistic回归模型，通过同时纳入主客场、球队实力和对方球队实力3种比赛情境并进行组合，共得到8种不同形式的多重比赛情境，分别对其影响比赛胜负的关键技战术指标进行探析。研究结果显示：（1）上游球队主场比赛，对阵上游球队时，射正次数、攻入35 m次数、传中次数、对等拼抢成功率是影响比赛胜率的关键指标；对阵下游球队时，射正次数、角球数、对等拼抢成功率、红牌是影响比赛胜率的关键指标。（2）下游球队主场比赛，对阵上游球队时，射正次数、控球率是影响比赛胜率的关键指标；对阵下游球队，射正次数、总传球成功率、角球数、向前传球数、对等拼抢成功率是影响比赛胜率的关键指标。（3）上游球队客场比赛，对阵上游球队时，射正次数、对等拼抢成功率是影响比赛胜率的关键指标；对阵下游球队，射正次数、越位次数、黄牌是影响比赛胜率的关键指标。（4）下游球队客场比赛，对阵上游球队，射正次数、控球率、攻入禁区次数是影响比赛胜率的关键指标；对阵下游球队，射正次数、对方半场控球率、对等拼抢成功率是影响比赛胜率的关键指标。
关 键 词：竞赛与训练；多重比赛情境；技战术表现；比赛胜负；中超足球联赛；Logistic回归模型
中图分类号：G843 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1006-7116（2018）02-0122-06
Effects of the technical and tactical performance of Chinese Football Association Super League teams on game winning or losing under multiple competition
JIANG Zhe，HUANG Zhu-hang，WU Fang
（School of Physical Education，Beijing Sport University，Beijing 100084，China）
Abstract： In order to more accurately reveal the relationship between football technical and tactical performance and game winning or losing， based on Chinese Football Association Super League competition results （tie games excluded） of the 2014–2016 competition seasons as the samples （n=519 match）， by using a binary logistic regression model， and by simultaneously including such 3 competition scenarios as competition location， team strength and opponent team strength and carrying out combination， the authors derived totally 8 different forms of multiple completion scenarios， respectively analyzed their key technical and tactical indexes that affected game winning or losing， and revealed the following findings： 1） in a home game， when an upstream team played against an upstream team， shorts on target， 35m entries， passes succeeded and peer challenge success rate were game winning probability affecting key indexes； when it played against a downstream team， shots on target， corner kicks， peer challenge success rate and red cards were game winning probability affecting key indexes； 2） in a home game， when a downstream team played against an upstream team， shorts on target and possession percentage were game winning probability affecting key indexes； when it played against a downstream team， shots on target， total pass success rate， corner kicks， forward passes and peer challenge success rate were game winning probability affecting key indexes； 3） in an away game， when an upstream team played against an upstream team， shots on target and peer challenge success rate were game winning probability affecting key indexes； when it played against a downstream team， shots on target， offside counts and yellow cards were game winning probability affecting key indexes； 4） in an away game， when a downstream team played against an upstream team， shots on target， possession percentage and penalty area entries were game winning probability affecting key indexes； when it played against a downstream team， shots on target， opponent court possession percentage and peer challenge success rate were game winning probability affecting key indexes.