Libya marked the 20th anniversary of the U.S. bombing raid in a markedly different way this year. Instead of anti-American protests and slogans, the air was filled with Lionel Richie songs.
On April 15, in front of the ruins that once housed the family of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Richie was invited to perform before a local audience. It was the first time American songs were heard so loud there in more than two decades.
Besides pop singers, the Libyan Government has also been reaching out to U.S. corporate bigwigs and government officials. Gaddafi has extended a welcoming hand to U.S. President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, but they have yet to make the trip.
The olive branch is not being waved by the Libyans alone. On May 15, Rice announced that the United States had decided to restore diplomatic relations with Libya, and was deleting the country from the blacklist of terrorism sponsors.
David Welch, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, said the decision was made after a close and serious evaluation of Libya’s behavior.
“It is a very important issue with regard to Middle East affairs and the U.S.-led war on terror,” said Yin Gang, a research fellow with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
But this easing of relations with Libya was not likely to be repeated with Iran and North Korea, both of which are stuck in a nuclear deadlock with the United States, according to Zhang Liangui, professor with the Institute of International Strategic Studies, Central Party School of the Communist Party of China.
Mutual interests
The thaw in Washington-Tripoli ties has attracted world attention since 2003, when the latter made a compensation offer of $2.7 billion, or $10 million for each victim, of the Lockerbie bombing, which killed 270 people on December 21, 1988. Among them, 259 were U.S. passengers and the crew of Pan Am Flight 103 from London to New York. Eleven people died in the Scottish town of Lockerbie as burning debris rained down. Verdicts were handed down by a court in the Netherlands on January 31, 2001, convicting Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi of the blast. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have said the man, employed by Libyan Arab Airlines in Malta, was also a Libyan intelligence agent.
Then in December 2003, Gaddafi made another surprising pledge--Libya would scrap its program of weapons of mass destruction and open its nuclear activities to spot inspections by the UN watchdog agency.
Throughout the previous decades, hatred and revenge dominated this bilateral relationship. Former U.S. President Ronald Reagan ordered the 1986 overnight air strikes in response to a bombing of a West Berlin discotheque used by U.S. servicemen, which killed three people and wounded up to 200. Washington blamed the bombing on Libya. In the U.S. raid on Tripoli on April 15, 1986, Gaddafi’s 15-month-old adopted daughter Hanna was killed, along with dozens of others.
After Libya made the goodwill gestures in 2003, the United States established a liaison office in Tripoli in June 2004. Since then, U.S. government delegations have been shuffling to and fro. Oil companies began to return to the North African country with their bids. Welch visited Tripoli twice last year and many observers said the U.S. side was putting ties through a “test period” before a final nod.
“Petroleum is one major factor that has led to the change of U.S.-Libya relations,” said Yin of CASS. He believes the U.S. decision was driven by self-interest.
Libya is the second biggest oil producer in Africa, with verified oil reserves of 39 billion barrels and potential reserves of 100 billion barrels. When the Reagan administration imposed sanctions against Libya in 1986, U.S. oil companies were forced to make way for their European counterparts. With the mend in Washington-Tripoli ties in 2003, U.S. oil companies began to return. In January 2005, they won 11 of 15 bids for Libyan oilfields. Earlier this year, three U.S. oil companies announced investments of $1.83 billion in the Libyan National Oil Corp.
With international oil prices soaring, and against the Iran nuclear standoff and escalating violence in oil-producing nations such as Iraq and Nigeria, normalization of diplomatic ties with Libya means greater stability in oil supplies for the United States.
Another consideration for the United States is the adjustment of its antiterror strategy, said Zhang with China’s Central Party School.
At present, U.S. Middle East policy is facing challenges in all directions. There are Iran’s nuclear program, increasing sectarian violence in Iraq and the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian equation with Hamas now in power. Under these circumstances, Washing-ton needs to fix its image. It wants to use its restoration of ties with Tripoli to showcase its accomplishments in the war against terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The message to countries such as Iran and North Korea is that the Libyan model leads to rewards. The United States is hoping for chain actions to resolve its problems in the Middle East, Zhang said.
The restoration of ties has come only after changes were set in motion from the Libyan side. Observers said Libya has wanted to be the leader of the Arab world, but found that its political influence was no match for Egypt and its economic strength lagged that of Saudi Arabia. With improved ties with the United States, it can look to lucrative oil contracts, as well as advanced technology and capital, from the United States. On its part, Libya has been allowing U.S. companies and banks to return.
Another reason for Libya making such radical changes is its leader Gaddafi, said Yin of the CASS, adding it has something to do with Gaddafi’s personal character.
When he was young, Gaddafi thought of himself as belonging to the Arab world and was keen on helping Arabs fight Israel. After former Egyptian President Anwar el-Sadat reached reconciliation with Israel, Gaddafi gave up his support for the Arab world and wanted to be the leader of Africa. He cannot achieve that without the help of the United States. “He is the kind of person who can break a promise. Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian’s visit was an example,” Yin continued.
Despite Beijing’s strong opposition, Libya, which has diplomatic relations with China and pledges adherence to the one-China policy, allowed Chen to make a transit stop in Tripoli on May 10. It’s reported Gadaffi held talks with Chen on establishing mutual representative offices.
In recent years, there have also been reports that Libya might forge diplomatic ties with Israel. These show how quickly Libya can change its position.
Libyan Foreign Minister Rahman Mohammed Shalgam said the full restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya accorded with the interests of the Libyan people and the Americans and wrote a new chapter in the development of bilateral ties.
Next stop
Shi Yongming, an expert on international affairs from the China Institute of International Studies, said the timing of the U.S. decision was more than just an end to a test period. “On the Iranian nuclear issue, the United States finds it has nowhere to go; it has to do something, and that is Libya.”
The standoff with Iran over its nuclear program has escalated; the six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue have failed to resume. Washington’s decision to restore ties with Tripoli serves U.S. interests perfectly, said Shi.
Welch also said, “When states adhere to international norms, they reap benefits,” implying that the U.S. move was aimed at sending Iran and North Korea a message.
“Washington is trying to tell Pyongyang what it can get if it follows the Libyan model. Recently, the United States made some goodwill gestures toward North Korea, including offering to sign a peace pact. The United States, Japan and South Korea agree that once North Korea abandons its nuclear program, there will be a breakthrough,” Shi told Beijing Review.
Zhang from the CPC Party School said the United States was fine-tuning its policy on the Korean nuclear issue, but there was little room for adjustment and “many technical barriers can hardly be overcome.”
North Korea has actually rejected Washington’s calls to emulate the Libyan model of renouncing its nuclear program in return for better relations with the United States. North Korean Deputy Ambassador to the UN Han Sung Ryol said on May 23 that the Libyan model did not suit Pyongyang.
As for Iran, Zhang told Beijing Review there was no possibility that the United States would give Teheran a security guarantee. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been taking a hardline approach to Washington and was unlikely to make a U-turn soon. Zhang predicted it was very likely the issue would be solved by the end of the year either through peaceful means or by force, and “the possibility can be as high as 90 percent.”
Observers said although the United States and Libya had restored diplomatic ties, they continued to keep a wary eye on each other. There are worries about the continuity of the Libyan policy as well as Gaddafi’s unfathomable character.
Just as Jon B. Alterman pointed out in his paper published in the January issue of the Middle East Quarterly journal, titled “Libya and the United States: the Unique Libyan Case,” to many U.S. observers, Gaddafi was “as erratic as he was dangerous, and many feared that any effort to conclude an agreement with him would only be a prelude to embarrassment.”
Meanwhile, Gaddafi may be concerned about potential U.S. control of Libya’s politics, military and the economy. Libyan officials have made it clear that they will not “put all the eggs in one basket” and will develop relations with other countries.
“When the United States and Libya resumed their ties, another competition began. If Libya’s oil economy booms and it doubles its daily production of oil, it will play a much bigger role in Africa. Whether this role matches U.S. anticipation is hard to tell now,” Yin said.
And it is a sobering thought that even as Libyans want to restore ties with the United States and seemed to enjoy Lionel Richie songs, they did not forget to demand a U.S. apology and compensation for the bombing that happened 20 years ago.